The recent UK review that found serial rapists and offenders remained in policing despite serious warning signs and vetting failures. Which go
The recent UK review that found serial rapists and offenders remained in policing despite serious warning signs and vetting failures. Which got me thinking:
In the U.S., one felony domestic violence study found 41% of 273 offenders were rearrested for a new violent offense during the follow-up period. Among those with prior drug or alcohol convictions, rearrest for violence was about 54%, compared with 27% for those without that history.
The National Domestic Violence Hotline cites federal data showing most female intimate partner violence victims had previously been victimized by the same offender: 77% for women ages 18–24, 76% for ages 25–34, and 81% for ages 35–49.
For broader U.S. prisoner recidivism, BJS found that among state prisoners released in 2005, 68% were arrested within 3 years, 79% within 6 years, and 83% within 9 years. That is not domestic violence-specific, but it shows why “one bad act” thinking is often weak public safety analysis.
In England and Wales, the Office for National Statistics estimated 3.8 million adults experienced domestic abuse in the year ending March 2025, including 2.2 million females and 1.5 million males.
UK policing leaders have also acknowledged a serious data problem: the 2024 VAWG National Policing Statement said police-recorded data often fails to identify patterns across offending categories, making it difficult for forces to reliably track repeat perpetrators. That is your “blind spot” point in official language.
A UK perpetrator-strategy report states that 1 in 4 domestic abuse perpetrators are repeat offenders, and some have as many as six different victims.
For sexual violence, Lisak and Miller’s study of undetected rapists found 120 self-reported rapists were responsible for 1,225 acts of interpersonal violence, including rape, battery, and child abuse.
Every time a respected man is exposed for violence or abuse, people ask the same question.
“How did nobody know?”
The uncomfortable answer is that sometimes people knew enough.
The bigger issue is that many people could not imagine the offender looking like him.
Society still carries an image of who danger is supposed to be. They know exactly who those prisons are “supposed” to be staffed by. That is, who is supposed to occupy them.
Many people believe they judge others based on facts.
In reality, people often judge others based on expectations.
That becomes especially dangerous when discussing violence and abuse.
Society has a mental image of what an offender should look like.
The problem is that real offenders do not always fit that image.
Some are respected professionals.
Some are community leaders.
Some are generous neighbors.
Some are charming.
Some are well connected.
Some are popular.
Some are attractive.
Some know exactly how to make people feel comfortable.
Because of this, warning signs are often filtered through favoritism.
When a well-liked person is accused of harmful behavior, many people’s first instinct is not curiosity.
It is protection.
They search for reasons the concern must be mistaken.
They search for explanations.
They search for excuses.
They search for flaws in the person raising the concern.
The discussion quietly shifts away from the behavior and toward protecting the image.
This creates a dangerous blind spot.
The more invested people become in someone’s reputation, the harder it can be to acknowledge information that contradicts it.
History is filled with examples of respected people who caused enormous harm while benefiting from community trust.
The issue is not whether someone seems nice.
The issue is whether people are willing to examine evidence honestly.
Danger does not disappear because a person is successful.
Danger does not disappear because a person is educated.
Danger does not disappear because a person is admired.
The most effective protection comes from evaluating behavior rather than defending reputations.
Safety improves when facts matter more than status.
Communities become stronger when truth matters more than image.
The issue is not only repeat offending. The issue is repeat offending combined with weak pattern recognition. Some systems count incidents. Survivors experience patterns.
Research Sources
Domestic abuse in England and Wales overview – Office for National Statistics
National Police Chiefs Council
Call-to-action-A-Domestic-Abuse-Perpetrator-Strategy-for-England-and-Wales.pdf